Attack Score: One Number for "Today or Not?"
Standing in the hallway before a ride, nobody wants to read six metrics. One score that carries the decision is the goal — as long as you know how it is built.
The ingredients
A sensible attack score combines four quantities: expected time gain against your best, PR probability, the chance of a relevant ranking, and forecast certainty. A big gain from a very uncertain forecast must not score the same as a solid gain with a stable weather picture.
The scale
To be actionable, the number needs clear bands:
- 0 to 30: forget it — training ride
- 30 to 50: training day with an option
- 50 to 70: attempt possible
- 70 to 85: strong opportunity
- 85 to 100: KOM weather, move your appointments
Consistency is mandatory
A score of 56 alongside a 100 percent PR probability is a contradiction and destroys trust. Score, verdict and probabilities must come from the same calculation and must not conflict — which is why KomPredict runs sanity checks before a number is shown.
The score does not replace the details
So every score comes with a view of what produced it: effective tailwind, predicted time, confidence. A score without an explanation is superstition with two digits.
In short
An attack score is only good if it is explainable and consistent with every other number.
Frequently asked questions
Why not just show the wind score?
Because wind alone is not a performance prediction. A score has to include your best time, your form and the ranking thresholds.
Can the score be high in headwind?
Rarely, but yes — for instance if your best time was set in strong headwind and today's conditions are clearly better.