KomPredict Magazine
Wind, aerodynamics, segment physics and KOM strategy: 30 articles on making Strava personal records predictable — with numbers instead of gut feeling.
- Equipment··5 min read
Weight or Aerodynamics: What Helps More on Your Segment?
At which gradient weight beats aerodynamics — with rules of thumb and concrete second values for typical segments.
- Product··7 min read
How KomPredict Works: From Strava Data to a Time Prediction
A look under the hood: data sources, PR anchor, physics model, simulation and attack score, explained step by step.
- KOM strategy··6 min read
Ten Common Mistakes in KOM Hunting
From poor segment choice to bad timing and equipment errors: the most common avoidable losses of seconds.
- Data model··5 min read
Attack Score: One Number for "Today or Not?"
How time gain, ranking probability and forecast confidence combine into an attack score, including the scale.
- Data model··5 min read
Reading Confidence Intervals in Time Predictions
Why a prediction should always be a band, how wide that band may be, and what a confidence value of 84 percent means.
- Data model··6 min read
Measuring a Segment's Wind Sensitivity
Some segments react strongly to wind, others barely at all. How to derive your segment's sensitivity factor from your own rides.
- KOM strategy··5 min read
Drafting, Group Rides and Fair Segment Times
How much drafting really saves, why group times distort leaderboards, and how to compare yourself sensibly.
- Planning··6 min read
When Is KOM Season? The Best Window in the Year
Wind, temperature and form across the year: when flat and when hilly segments offer the best chances.
- Data model··5 min read
Data Quality in Strava Segments: GPS, Length and Elevation
Why segment data is often imprecise, how to spot errors, and what it means for predictions.
- Equipment··6 min read
Gravel Bike or Road Bike: Which Is Faster on Your Segment?
A direct comparison of both bike types by surface, distance and wind, with realistic time differences.
- Training··5 min read
Warming Up Before a KOM Attempt: A Protocol That Works
A practical warm-up for segment attempts: duration, intensities and the right gap before the effort.
- Training··6 min read
Pacing Short Segments: 60 Seconds to 5 Minutes
How to pace segments between one and five minutes, with concrete power targets and the most common mistakes.
- Equipment··5 min read
Tyre Pressure and Segment Time: The Underrated Lever
How to find the fastest tyre pressure for tarmac and gravel, including reference values by tyre width and system weight.
- Aerodynamics··6 min read
Optimising Your Aero Position: Seconds Without More Watts
Practical steps to a faster position on the bike, from head position to arm placement, with realistic time gains.
- Data model··6 min read
Which Weather Data You Need for Segment Predictions
Hourly values, wind direction, gusts and temperature: which data sources work for cycling predictions and what to watch out for.
- Strava··6 min read
Understanding Strava Leaderboards: KOM, Top 10 and Your Rank
How Strava leaderboards work, why some times look impossible, and how to find a realistic target position.
- KOM strategy··6 min read
KOM Strategy for Climbing Segments
Uphill it is watts per kilogram, pacing and temperature that count. Why wind matters less — but not zero.
- KOM strategy··6 min read
KOM Strategy for Flat Segments
How to choose flat Strava segments, find the right wind day and execute the attempt cleanly.
- Physics··6 min read
Rolling Resistance by Surface: Tarmac, Gravel, Trail
Crr reference values for different surfaces and tyres — and how much time gravel costs compared with smooth tarmac.
- Data model··6 min read
Segment Bearing: Getting the Direction Maths Right
How to determine a Strava segment's bearing in degrees and combine it correctly with meteorological wind direction.
- Data model··5 min read
How to Read a PR Probability
What a 72 percent PR probability really means, when the number lies, and how to use it for daily planning.
- Data model··7 min read
Monte Carlo Simulation in Cycling: From a Number to a Probability
How thousands of simulations turn uncertain inputs into meaningful PR and ranking probabilities.
- Physics··5 min read
Air Density: Why You Ride Faster in the Heat
Temperature, pressure, altitude and humidity change air density — and with it your segment time. With concrete reference values.
- Performance··6 min read
FTP or 5-Minute Power: Which Number Matters for Segments?
Which power metric you need for segment predictions, depending on segment duration, with reference values for 1 to 20 minutes.
- Aerodynamics··6 min read
CdA Values by Bike Type: From TT to MTB
Realistic CdA reference values for time trial, aero road, road, gravel and mountain bikes — and what the difference means in seconds.
- Planning··6 min read
Finding the Best Time of Day for a KOM Attempt
Wind, temperature and traffic change through the day. How to find the window with the highest PR probability.
- Physics··5 min read
Crosswind: Little Time Gain, Plenty of Risk
Why crosswind barely produces seconds, how it still changes your aerodynamics, and what that means for segment attempts.
- Physics··5 min read
What Headwind Costs: Watts, Seconds and Expectations
Headwind costs more time than tailwind gives back. How many watts you need to offset it — and when to train instead of attack.
- Physics··7 min read
Turning Tailwind Into Seconds: How to Estimate the Gain
A step-by-step method from wind forecast to expected segment time: effective wind component, air speed and realistic second values.
- KOM strategy··6 min read
Strava KOM Hunting: Why Wind Decides the Seconds
How tailwind, headwind and crosswind change your Strava segment time — and how to pick the right day for a KOM attempt.